We have completed our initial research on Docebo. This 90-slide presentation includes results from our: Face-to-face meetings with Learning & Development (L&D) professionals in Toronto Talking with LMS salespeople from Docebo, SAP, Cornerstone OnDemand, Instructure and numerous private LMS firms Trialing and demoing Docebo, Adobe, SAP and Bridge Solutions including creating questions, lesson plans and courses and simulating roles as an admin and user An online survey involving 16 L&D professionals in North America Tracking Docebo’s account executive, business development, inside sales and others in S&M Talking with Docebo’s IR Among the topics we discuss are: Docebo’s Tangible Addressable Market […]
Survey
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We have updated our Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) presentation, updating our thesis to include further details on our segment forecasts and valuation. Lightspeed (LSPD.TO) August 29, 2019, Institutional Investor SELL Pitch – Perspectec We are making this presentation public for marketing purposes. Institutional Equity Research subscribers had access to an earlier version of this presentation on August 13, 2019. We believe investors holding LSPD.TO should sell their shares. Our investment thesis is that: There are material headwinds Lightspeed’s growth strategy Lightspeed’s Customer Growth has (and will) come almost entirely from acquired platforms Organic customer location acquisition costs are high and […]
We have launched coverage on Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) with a SELL rating and a price target of C$30. We use lifetime value-added (LTV added) as a base metric gathered through online surveys. In addition, we conducted 22 in-person interviews with retail stores and restaurants across Toronto to get a better sense of customer satisfaction with their product relative to competitors. These methods were used in conjunction with Lightspeed’s gross margin dollar growth relative to its public peer group to come to a fair value for Lightspeed. On a stand-alone basis, Lightspeed’s lifetime value-added divided by its customer growth costs […]
We have completed a survey of over 600 adult respondents. The purpose of the survey was to update our churn, penetration and awareness rates for Shopify (SHOP-NYSE). Shopify releases metrics such as monthly recurring revenue that helps us value the company on a Subscriber as a Service (SaaS) basis. The customer churn rate that we calculate from the survey results is a key statistic necessary to properly value Shopify on a relative SaaS valuation, but that is not released by Shopify.
We have updated our Shopify (SHOP-NYSE) marketing package which includes our survey results as well as our Q2 and annual forecasts. Our updated 23 slide Shopify pitch is attached.
Following up on our U.S. survey conducted in January, we conducted surveys in Mexico, Germany and Japan to determine the changes in Netflix’s international penetration and churn. Since our last international survey in November of 2017, churn in these countries has fallen from 41% to 36.5%. The net affects on Netflix churn is a decrease from 26.2% to 23.8%. Netflix’s increased investment in local language content appears to be paying off after not showing an improvement four months ago. With the improved Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) / Customer Growth Costs (CGC) ratio, and ultimately leading to a higher valuation. Our […]
Following the release of Netflix’s Q4 results, we conducted our 3rd survey of online U.S. residents. The purpose of the survey was to determine Netflix’s churn rate, penetration rate and reasons for subscribers leaving. Results from the 500 respondents revealed significant changes in Netflix’s churn rate for the 2nd straight survey. U.S. subscriber churn continues to plummet at a steady rate – Our survey reveals that subscribers churned at 9.2% over the last year after excluding responses faster than 3 seconds. This compares to a churn rate of 13.3% in September of 2017 and 17% in May of 2017 using the same shorter than three second […]
This is our second set of surveys of international markets that we believe are representative of Netflix’s international subscriber base. Over the past quarter, international churn has remained constant at 41% while the US churn fell about a quarter from 17% to 13%. A stagnation in churn despite increased investment in local language content will prove harmful to the customer lifetime value (CLTV)/ customer growth costs (CGC) ratio- the SaaS metric on which Netflix trades. Our Surveys- We have used Mexico as a proxy for Spanish speaking markets, Germany for European markets and Japan for Asian markets. Through the surveys we were able […]
Facts: On Tuesday, August 8th after the market close, Disney (DIS-NYSE) announced on their fiscal Q3 conference call that: ► They will end their distribution agreement with Netflix (NFLX-NASDAQ) for subscription streaming of new releases from Disney and Pixar, beginning with the 2019 calendar-year theatrical slate ►The biggest named productions set for release in 2019 include a live-action Lion King, Frozen 2, and Toy Story 4 ►Disney is still undecided on whether to pull Lucasfilm (Star Wars) and Marvel (DareDevil and more) content ► Netflix did not have global rights to our Disney movies. They bought opportunistically in certain markets. The original deal, which […]
Our ultimate goal with this survey is getting an up to date International churn rate for Netflix’s users, which can be used to determine their customer lifetime value (CLTV). This is the key unreported metric in their SaaS valuation, which appears to be how NFLX trades. CLTV along with the company’s total market opportunity are the key outstanding questions investors appear to have concerning the future stock price. More specifically the surveys are determining: a Penetration rate – The percentage of users who have or have had a Netflix subscription over the last 12 months. The market potential is best […]
Summary of Survey Results According to a Perspectec survey of 1,000 online respondents in late July, Netflix’s has penetrated 28% of the Japanese market and 27% of the German market. In both countries the percentage of subscribers who have left Netflix over the past year is just over 50%. The most common reasons why subscribers left Netflix was due to price and a lack of content. Why do Churn and Penetration Matter Now? For those following Netflix (NFLX-NASDAQ), it is increasingly apparent that 2017 will be the most telling year in determining whether the company’s International strategy is headed for success or failure. Success […]
This is the first in an ongoing series of research pieces examining Netflix’s (NFLX-NASDAQ) business and share price. Unlike their programming, there will be no end date to our research unless the company is acquired. We view Netflix revenue and content costs similar to the way the company does, taking into account U.S. and International churn, customer lifetime value and customer acquisition costs. In order to help answer some key questions, we surveyed over 600 hundred people in the U.S. and Mexico, with a goal of helping to answer questions we had surrounding market penetration, pricing, content, competition and subscriber […]