The last two weeks have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of management selling. Vecima quietly exited from its AirIQ fleet management holdings, and some other surprising selling (and a little buying) from some high flying stocks. AcuityAds ($AT.TO) director Igal Mayer exercised 25,000 options set to expire but chose not to sell the resulting shares despite the possibility of the shares netting him $35,000+. There does not appear to be any minimum share requirements for board members
SHOP
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With another technology IPO trading at 100%+ after the 1st day of trading (BigCommerce: $BIGC), it appears that institutional buyside is really having their way with venture capital and investment bankers. Off the back of this continued mispricing by bankers, we have decided to publish our SaaS Commerce Comparable table to help make the valuation picture more clear. eCom Store Platforms While BigCommerce trades at a near 6oo% discount to Shopify’s EV/Gross Profit, it is actually trading at a 25% premium to Shopify’s SaaS Growth multiple. At the same time while Shopify reported very strong merchant sales (up 83% Q/Q), […]
We have created a table that summarizes most comparable data from our previous surveys. This data is used in our relative equity valuations. For Institutional Equity Research subscribers, we are providing this table while also making all our raw data available to you on request in excel format.
We have launched coverage on Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) with a SELL rating and a price target of C$30. We use lifetime value-added (LTV added) as a base metric gathered through online surveys. In addition, we conducted 22 in-person interviews with retail stores and restaurants across Toronto to get a better sense of customer satisfaction with their product relative to competitors. These methods were used in conjunction with Lightspeed’s gross margin dollar growth relative to its public peer group to come to a fair value for Lightspeed. On a stand-alone basis, Lightspeed’s lifetime value-added divided by its customer growth costs […]
We have completed a survey of over 600 adult respondents. The purpose of the survey was to update our churn, penetration and awareness rates for Shopify (SHOP-NYSE). Shopify releases metrics such as monthly recurring revenue that helps us value the company on a Subscriber as a Service (SaaS) basis. The customer churn rate that we calculate from the survey results is a key statistic necessary to properly value Shopify on a relative SaaS valuation, but that is not released by Shopify.
We have updated our 19-slide Shopify Powerpoint Pitch in which we examine the major sticky points in Shopify’s product relative to peers, Shopify’s real TAM and market share, investor expectations, relative subscriber valuations, and other unique issues that are typically overlooked by brokers.
In this piece, we examine Shopify’s current and future identifiable e-Commerce Platform market share versus Magento (Adobe), Oracle Commerce, Demandware (Salesforce), BigCommerce, Squarespace Commerce, IBM Websphere Commerce, Wix Stores, Weebly (Square), Shappify (Shopify App), Volusion, StackCommerce, Hybris, Amazon Webstore, Elastic Path, MadMobile Ecwid Plug-in (WordPress), 3D Cart, FoxyCart, GoDaddy Online Store, ePages, K-eCommerce and (Microsoft Dynamics & SAP). We also look at Shopify’s customers and the obstacles to achieving continuous market share growth in the future. Shopify’s e-Commerce Sales Growth was 400%+ vs. Competitors in Q1/18 Shopify sales have grown 68.3% Y/Y in Q1 2018 versus the U.S. e-Commerce market […]
Shopify’s (SHOP-NYSE) share price continues to fluctuate as questions about future gross margins, churn, and valuation continue. We take a unique approach to Shopify’s subscription valuation in order to account for its Merchant business that accounted for 36% of gross margin dollars (TTM). What Moves SHOP’s Share Price and how has it Traded? Source: Perspectec Shopify’s gross margin profile, subscription churn (based on our survey) and operating expense put Shopify as a very expensive stock relative to its peer group. Getting a Clean Shopify SaaS Valuation We believe Shopify’s valuation should be based on its relative SaaS valuation. We do not see a path to a […]