We have introduced our Perspectec Insider Trading Portfolio. The equal weighted portfolio currently involves 38 primarily Canadian investable technology and cannabis companies. Ratings are updated at least every month. Performance since the August 18, 2020 Launch to September 21, 2020 Source: Perspectec Here are the list of names in the portfolio.
Robin Manson-Hing
78 posts
We have made our Excel Shopify Financial Model available to for Institutional Equity Research Subscribers. What this file includes: Quarterly historical and forecasted (up to Q4/23) drivers of revenue and gross margin for Shopify POS, Domain Names, one-time App revenue, one-time Theme revenue, recurring App revenue, Shopify Plus, non-Plus subscriptions, Shopify Payments, transaction fees, partner referral fees, Shopify Shipping, Shopify Capital, SFN, 6 Rivers Systems, amd Hardware Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow, with both GAAP and Non-GAAP quarterly figures Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) up until 2060. A 9.1% Weighted Average Required Rate of Return (WACC for practical purposes), […]
The last two weeks have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of management selling. Vecima quietly exited from its AirIQ fleet management holdings, and some other surprising selling (and a little buying) from some high flying stocks. AcuityAds ($AT.TO) director Igal Mayer exercised 25,000 options set to expire but chose not to sell the resulting shares despite the possibility of the shares netting him $35,000+. There does not appear to be any minimum share requirements for board members
With another technology IPO trading at 100%+ after the 1st day of trading (BigCommerce: $BIGC), it appears that institutional buyside is really having their way with venture capital and investment bankers. Off the back of this continued mispricing by bankers, we have decided to publish our SaaS Commerce Comparable table to help make the valuation picture more clear. eCom Store Platforms While BigCommerce trades at a near 6oo% discount to Shopify’s EV/Gross Profit, it is actually trading at a 25% premium to Shopify’s SaaS Growth multiple. At the same time while Shopify reported very strong merchant sales (up 83% Q/Q), […]
We have created a table that summarizes most comparable data from our previous surveys. This data is used in our relative equity valuations. For Institutional Equity Research subscribers, we are providing this table while also making all our raw data available to you on request in excel format.
With calendar Q2 blackout periods coming to an end, insider trading is starting to pick again with insiders. We saw three positive insider disclosures, one neutral to negative move and one negative move. Real Matters ($REAL.TO) Chairman Blaine Hobson sold 29% of his $REAL.TO shares at around $30 per share and exercised about 5% of his call options ($2.28 exercise price and Nov. 5, 2020 exercise date). The sale of his shares and exercise of options generated over $3.5 million for himself. Hobson now owns about 0.3% of $REAL.TO. The selling was off the back of a relatively strong quarter driven by […]
Cornerstone OnDemand’s SaaS Multiple Post-Saba Synergies Pushes our Docebo Target Price Higher Docebo ($DCBO.TO) reported Q2/20 results that were better than we expected. After Q1/20 results saw the company’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) / S&M drop from 1.2x to 0.83x, we were concerned that selling their relatively expensive solution was becoming more difficult. This quarter not only did the ratio remain steady at 0.83x, but Cornerstone OnDemand’s ($CSOD) updated run-rate synergies expected from their acquisition of Saba Software has continued to improve.
Perspective on Technology – August 11, 2020 Lightspeed’s ($LSPD.TO) share price is up 16% (TSX Composite up 3%) since Tuesday, July 28. Fiscal Q1 (June 2020) revenue and headline EBITDA was better than we expected, but there are clear data points that have us continuing to believe $LSPD.TO does not deserve to be trading at a $SHOP-like SaaS multiple. Record Locations Yet Record Low Deferred Revenue “In the three months ended June 30, 2020, we engaged in several customer-focused initiatives, such as subscription discounts and deferred payment arrangements, aimed at supporting our customers during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” We understand the mix towards monthly/annual payment plans vs. multi-year, but that […]
We have released our first look at the most recent technology IPO on the TSX, Dye & Durham (DND.TO) and have initiated coverage with a BUY. Their 510 page IPO and secondary offering prospectus included about 350 pages of financials and notes on its acquired subsidiaries. This has to be a record for a Canadian technology company.
We have published our updated view on Lightspeed (LSPD.TO – SELL). A change in their product bundling, free products, lowered pricing and go to market strategy are helping to reduce churn from restaurant and retail store shutdowns in the short-term. The most recent quarter saw a larger than expected impact from Lightspeed Payments driven by bundling Payments with their basic plans in the U.S. However, we believe the company provided some misleading statements during their conference call. We believe real, organic gross margin dollar growth excluding Payments (which is benefiting from having just started over a year ago and being […]
The speed at which Shopify (SHOP.NYSE) saw a 119% price increase off the back of withdrawing their 2020 financial guidance on April 1st took us by surprise. While a short-term pullback is possible, Shopify is taking advantage of two material catalysts with clear timelines, which we discuss in our 52-slide Powerpoint Executive Summary pitch. At the same time, valuation at US$750 per share requires investors to move away from a relative SaaS valuation thesis they may have had a few months ago and be comfortable with Shopify spending to grow into having a 2.8% market share of online small businesses […]
We have updated our Aphria research pitch, including the impact of COVID-19 on our forecast. We have also updated our recommendation, price target, and cannabis price/demand curves. We have also made our Aphria financial model available.
We view the current market meltdown as being directly correlated with the increase in the average infection rate per infected person in the U.S. The actions taken by the U.S. government to date (“15 Days to Slow the Spread” and trillion-dollar stimulus) will not be enough to slow the infection rate enough quickly enough in our opinion for a stabilization of prices to occur. When material enough action is taken to slow the spread, we believe institutional investors will have a clearer idea as to when a return to normalcy will occur. At that time, we believe buying certain non-profitable […]
We have published an update on Lightspeed post their fiscal Q3 results and Q4 guidance. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2020 Results and Q4 2020 Guidance Misleading statements surrounding Growth continue Increasingly expensive and unprofitable acquisitions with little synergies and no path to improving margins Insider selling and treasury shares issuance are increasing the market float at the wrong time Reasons for the removal of Cash Flows from Operations guidance for the 2nd time is questionable Updated LTV vs. GC metrics (adjusting for the Gastrofix acquisition) Slowing Organic Growth will cause investors to push towards Profitability, yet consistent 10% EBITDA margins appear […]