We have published our updated view on Lightspeed (LSPD.TO – SELL). A change in their product bundling, free products, lowered pricing and go to market strategy are helping to reduce churn from restaurant and retail store shutdowns in the short-term. The most recent quarter saw a larger than expected impact from Lightspeed Payments driven by bundling Payments with their basic plans in the U.S. However, we believe the company provided some misleading statements during their conference call. We believe real, organic gross margin dollar growth excluding Payments (which is benefiting from having just started over a year ago and being […]
Target Price Update
34 posts
We recently toured both Aphria’s and Canopy Growth’s primary facilities in Ontario. This is Part 1 of our two part series. This 42-slide presentation includes detailed estimated cost breakdowns of Aphria’s energy, labour, TFW program, oil extraction, product and other costs. Our 5-hour tour included examining both Aphria One and Aphria Double Diamond. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PVqulah2GYJUgKJA7cbLxJ4jwpCKv3m8/view?usp=sharing
We have opened up this pitch to the public for marketing purposes. We value the company based on a relative valuation of 16 x $1,807 million (Premium TTM Gross Margin) + 21.3 x $240 million (CLTV Added) = an EV of $34.1 billion. Assuming net cash of $3.9 billion, $38 billion / 205.5 million diluted shares = $185 per share. We believe investors who have a time horizon of one year or more should BUY the stock now. Please find our updated, 62-slide Spotify pitch below. Spotify Pitch_- Perspectec – November 14th, 2018 Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is […]
We have updated our 13-slide NVIDIA pitch for investors. NVIDIA is reporting fiscal Q3/19 results on Thursday, November 15th, after the market close. Last quarter’s results and fiscal Q3 guidance are following our models closely, with our adjusted r-squared increasing in most categories using fiscal Q2 results. https://drive.google.com/file/d/177JWB-bMiC9IrIZBwK90bZqvhPuncAPU/view?usp=sharing
We have updated our view of Elbit Systems, accounting for the impact of IMI Systems and new announced orders on operating leverage and non-GAAP EPS. We hit on the key points that we believe will move the stock in 2018 based on how the stock has historically traded. Attached is an updated 13-page powerpoint presentation on the key issues that will affect Elbit’s adjusted EPS and valuation. All subscribers can access our full financial model. While our target is $130, but we see upside up to $134 based on 20x our 2019 non-GAAP EPS of $6.72. We believe upside is […]
We have updated our 19-slide Shopify Powerpoint Pitch in which we examine the major sticky points in Shopify’s product relative to peers, Shopify’s real TAM and market share, investor expectations, relative subscriber valuations, and other unique issues that are typically overlooked by brokers.
We have completed a holistic overview of Canada’s recreational cannabis market. Based primarily on data from Colorado as well as taking into account capacity increases from Canada’s lowest-cost producer, we have a materially different assumption on future market prices and demand. Attached is our overview of the industry. All graphs used are sourced from either the State of Colorado, BDS, Provincial government press releases or BDS Analytics.
In this piece, we examine Shopify’s current and future identifiable e-Commerce Platform market share versus Magento (Adobe), Oracle Commerce, Demandware (Salesforce), BigCommerce, Squarespace Commerce, IBM Websphere Commerce, Wix Stores, Weebly (Square), Shappify (Shopify App), Volusion, StackCommerce, Hybris, Amazon Webstore, Elastic Path, MadMobile Ecwid Plug-in (WordPress), 3D Cart, FoxyCart, GoDaddy Online Store, ePages, K-eCommerce and (Microsoft Dynamics & SAP). We also look at Shopify’s customers and the obstacles to achieving continuous market share growth in the future. Shopify’s e-Commerce Sales Growth was 400%+ vs. Competitors in Q1/18 Shopify sales have grown 68.3% Y/Y in Q1 2018 versus the U.S. e-Commerce market […]
Post Spotify’s (SPOT-NYSE) Q1/18 earnings report and Q2/18 guidance, we have updated our Spotify subscription valuation model. Our target price is based on a relative valuation versus Netflix, SiriusXM and Pandora. Our model has a multiple r-squared of 0.997 and p-values for both factors of under 0.09. We value Spotify at $104/share. The actual function calculates the market capitalization,which is based on 3x CLTV TTM + 44x TTM CLTV added. Our updated model now better accounts for a profitable but slower growing userbase at SiriusXM as well as tempering some of the quarterly volatility in TTM CLTV added for Spotify and Pandora. The volatility […]
Based on the latest Alibaba unique visitor data for Tmall and Taobao, we have lowered our fiscal Q4 2018 estimate for online marketing service revenue from $3.97 billion to $3.82 billion. We now expect pageviews to be up 3.5% Y/Y in fiscal Q4 versus up 14% Y/Y last quarter. The end result is our total revenue forecast in fiscal Q4 decreasing from $9.56 billion to $9.41 billion. We still see the full year 2018 revenue ahead of guidance (beating it by 1.4%). Revenue growth we now see as being up 54.9% Y/Y versus up 56% in fiscal Q3/18. Our adjusted 2018 EPS moves up […]
With contributions from Robin Manson-Hing. We have completed our quarterly analysis of Salesforce’s major product lines and have seen some changes on where Salesforce sits in relation to its competition. This analysis does not include MuleSoft’s Anytime Platform or MuleSoft’s impact to Salesforce’s financials. Market position for Sales Cloud and Marketing Cloud moves lower – We track CRM’s market position every quarter using a market competitiveness model. Over the last quarter, we found Sales Cloud and Marketing Cloud to have moved lower since our last report primarily due to lower interest in their solutions. While the price hike for Sales Cloud two years ago has been […]
WIth contributions from Xenel Nazar. Elbit reported Q4 results on Tuesday, March 20th. The financial results were in-line with our expectations. Financial Model Impacts – Gross margin in 2018 should be similar to the last 4 to 6 quarters. _”So without giving you specific guidance, I think if you look back on what has happened in the last 4 to 6 quarters on average, that may be something that could be representative of the future.”_ – General & Administrative expense in Q4 could again occur, although likely by lesser amounts. _”I note that during 2017, and particularly during the fourth quarter, […]
Examining Paycom (PAYC-NYSE) taking a full ‘retrospective adoption approach’ to adopting the new ASC 606 standard, their restating of adjusted EBITDA has driven us to update our EV/EBITDA forecast model. The new standard allows Paycom to defer a materially larger than industry average portion of their sales commissions over the lifetime of its customers. This has caused adjusted EBITDA for 2017 to now be $186 million versus $137 million previously. Our new function involves seven public payroll SaaS companies that have produced an r-squared of 0.863 in forecasting the current EV/EBITDA multiple. The end result is our target EV/EBITDA multiple for Paycom has been reduced from 45x to 36x. Our […]
We have collected Google Trends search data for Netflix Originals up to the week ended 17th February 2018 and inputted it into our updated regression model to determine the current net subscriber additions and guide towards the quarter’s expected additions. Our model suggests Netflix would have added 4.34 million subscribers in the first half of the quarter. The current track suggests it is on pace to meet and slightly beat the company’s guidance of 6.3 million subscribers for the quarter. We are estimating net subscriber additions to be 6.6 million in Q1 2018. About our Regression Model – Our forecast […]
On Wednesday February 21, Aphria posted on its social media accounts that their phase 3 expansion was complete. The next step before the greenhouse can have marijuana plants move in is receiving Health Canada approval. A timely phase 3 expansion is key to meeting EBITDA expectations over the next year – Phase 3 is expected to more than triple Aphria’s production capacity (excluding their Broken Coast acquisition) from 9,000 KG/year to 30,000 KG/year. This is well above retail and wholesale medical demand for Aphria’s marijuana products, which are selling at a 5,000 KG/year run rate. In other words this expansion is […]