The last two weeks have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of management selling. Vecima quietly exited from its AirIQ fleet management holdings, and some other surprising selling (and a little buying) from some high flying stocks. AcuityAds ($AT.TO) director Igal Mayer exercised 25,000 options set to expire but chose not to sell the resulting shares despite the possibility of the shares netting him $35,000+. There does not appear to be any minimum share requirements for board members
SHOP
10 posts
The speed at which Shopify (SHOP.NYSE) saw a 119% price increase off the back of withdrawing their 2020 financial guidance on April 1st took us by surprise. While a short-term pullback is possible, Shopify is taking advantage of two material catalysts with clear timelines, which we discuss in our 52-slide Powerpoint Executive Summary pitch. At the same time, valuation at US$750 per share requires investors to move away from a relative SaaS valuation thesis they may have had a few months ago and be comfortable with Shopify spending to grow into having a 2.8% market share of online small businesses […]
After a 3-month planned break, Perspectec has re-started. Our team has been busy finalizing some changes to our portfolio. As of November 29, 2019 prior to the market open we are: – We are upgrading Lightspeed (LSPD.TO) to a HOLD from a SELL. We believe Perspectec’s research was a primary driver in moving the stock price lower. – We are upgrading Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO) to a HOLD from a SELL. We believe Perspectec’s research was a primary driver in moving the stock price lower. – We are moving Shopify (SHOP) from our Focused Portfolio to our General Portfolio. We have […]
We have launched coverage on Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) with a SELL rating and a price target of C$30. We use lifetime value-added (LTV added) as a base metric gathered through online surveys. In addition, we conducted 22 in-person interviews with retail stores and restaurants across Toronto to get a better sense of customer satisfaction with their product relative to competitors. These methods were used in conjunction with Lightspeed’s gross margin dollar growth relative to its public peer group to come to a fair value for Lightspeed. On a stand-alone basis, Lightspeed’s lifetime value-added divided by its customer growth costs […]
We have updated our Shopify (SHOP-NYSE) marketing package which includes our survey results as well as our Q2 and annual forecasts. Our updated 23 slide Shopify pitch is attached.
We have created and updated our Mid-Sized, Slow Growth (SMB Focused) SaaS Comps table while launching coverage of ZEN in our Perspectec General Portfolio. Our target prices are based on a multiple regression model with a multiple r-squared of over 0.65 and r-squared of 0.90. We expect to improve this model moving forward. We do not use targets for Hubspot, RingCentral or Wix at the moment as we believe there are more accurate methods that can be a driver to their stock prices. We believe these metrics are reasonable in the absence of earnings due to the higher likelihood of these […]
We have updated our 19-slide Shopify Powerpoint Pitch in which we examine the major sticky points in Shopify’s product relative to peers, Shopify’s real TAM and market share, investor expectations, relative subscriber valuations, and other unique issues that are typically overlooked by brokers.
In this piece, we examine Shopify’s current and future identifiable e-Commerce Platform market share versus Magento (Adobe), Oracle Commerce, Demandware (Salesforce), BigCommerce, Squarespace Commerce, IBM Websphere Commerce, Wix Stores, Weebly (Square), Shappify (Shopify App), Volusion, StackCommerce, Hybris, Amazon Webstore, Elastic Path, MadMobile Ecwid Plug-in (WordPress), 3D Cart, FoxyCart, GoDaddy Online Store, ePages, K-eCommerce and (Microsoft Dynamics & SAP). We also look at Shopify’s customers and the obstacles to achieving continuous market share growth in the future. Shopify’s e-Commerce Sales Growth was 400%+ vs. Competitors in Q1/18 Shopify sales have grown 68.3% Y/Y in Q1 2018 versus the U.S. e-Commerce market […]
Shopify’s (SHOP-NYSE) share price continues to fluctuate as questions about future gross margins, churn, and valuation continue. We take a unique approach to Shopify’s subscription valuation in order to account for its Merchant business that accounted for 36% of gross margin dollars (TTM). What Moves SHOP’s Share Price and how has it Traded? Source: Perspectec Shopify’s gross margin profile, subscription churn (based on our survey) and operating expense put Shopify as a very expensive stock relative to its peer group. Getting a Clean Shopify SaaS Valuation We believe Shopify’s valuation should be based on its relative SaaS valuation. We do not see a path to a […]