We recently toured both Aphria’s and Canopy Growth’s primary facilities in Ontario. This is Part 1 of our two part series. This 42-slide presentation includes detailed estimated cost breakdowns of Aphria’s energy, labour, TFW program, oil extraction, product and other costs. Our 5-hour tour included examining both Aphria One and Aphria Double Diamond. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PVqulah2GYJUgKJA7cbLxJ4jwpCKv3m8/view?usp=sharing
Ratings Change
18 posts
Aphria released further details on the Latin America operations. The details on the release did not portray businesses worth anything close to the amount paid and played into Quintessential Capital Management arguments. No financials or even pictures were provided by Aphria. Details on the nearly 100 employees remain cloudy and at this point it would appear that Vic Neufeld will need to step down.
We have updated our 13-slide NVIDIA pitch for investors. NVIDIA is reporting fiscal Q3/19 results on Thursday, November 15th, after the market close. Last quarter’s results and fiscal Q3 guidance are following our models closely, with our adjusted r-squared increasing in most categories using fiscal Q2 results. https://drive.google.com/file/d/177JWB-bMiC9IrIZBwK90bZqvhPuncAPU/view?usp=sharing
We have updated our view of Elbit Systems, accounting for the impact of IMI Systems and new announced orders on operating leverage and non-GAAP EPS. We hit on the key points that we believe will move the stock in 2018 based on how the stock has historically traded. Attached is an updated 13-page powerpoint presentation on the key issues that will affect Elbit’s adjusted EPS and valuation. All subscribers can access our full financial model. While our target is $130, but we see upside up to $134 based on 20x our 2019 non-GAAP EPS of $6.72. We believe upside is […]
WIth contributions from Xenel Nazar. Elbit reported Q4 results on Tuesday, March 20th. The financial results were in-line with our expectations. Financial Model Impacts – Gross margin in 2018 should be similar to the last 4 to 6 quarters. _”So without giving you specific guidance, I think if you look back on what has happened in the last 4 to 6 quarters on average, that may be something that could be representative of the future.”_ – General & Administrative expense in Q4 could again occur, although likely by lesser amounts. _”I note that during 2017, and particularly during the fourth quarter, […]
On Thursday February 15th, Splunk’s (SPLK-NASDAQ) share price closed at $96.35. With the Thursday close surpassing our target of $93, we recommend investors no longer purchase SPLK shares. SPLK is not a FAANG play – Recall we launched our BUY recommendation on December 29th with the share price at $82.84. Our valuation is based on a fiscal Q1 2019 trailing 12-month free cash flow target. With the equity markets continuing to surge, our target was reached weeks before the company’s March 1st fiscal Q4 2018 earnings release. In comparison to other large cap tech stocks however, SPLK has a below average r-squared […]
With Netflix closing at $250.29, above our target share price of $245, we believe investors should now stop accumulating the shares. Recall on January 2nd, we upgraded Netflix to a Buy from a Hold after confirming an earlier signal we saw on December 2nd that Netflix was setting up for a net subscriber addition beat. Following the conclusion of our U.S. Netflix consumer survey and updated tracking of Originals through Google trends, we will re-visit our stock call. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and […]
On Tuesday, January 9th, Salesforce (CRM) broke through its all-time high set back on November 21st. It has now comfortably past our target of $108 set back on December 19th. Given the recent run-up in the stock price and the equity markets in general, we now believe fiscal Q4 2018 results and Q1 2019 guidance beats are being fully accounted for in the stock price. This is based on CRM’s historical EV/EBITDA valuation, its CLTV/CGC relative valuation and CRM’s high r-squared with the NASDAQ Composite. We believe investors should stop accumulating shares of CRM above $108. We continue to monitor CRM’s competitive […]
We have updated our Netflix Q4 net subscriber additions to account for all original programming released up to December 30, 2017. Based on Google Trends historical search data of every Netflix Original relative to its most popular show, 13 Reasons Why, we now estimate that Netflix will add 8.1 million subscribers in Q4 2017 vs. management’s guidance of 6.3 million net subscriber additions. This will be the third straight quarter Netflix will beat its guidance, putting net subscriber additions for the end of 2017 at 23.6 million, up 24% from the end of Q4 2016. The following recaps the foundation of our proprietary multiple linear regression […]
Over the past few months, Baidu (BIDU-NASDAQ) saw its stock price plunge from over $270 to under $230 before climbing above $240 yesterday. Following better than expected Q3 results but a less than stellar Q4 guidance, some institutional investors have reduced their positions as the likelihood of a material earnings beat continuing from the disposal of the delivery business was lower than expected for some. We believe given the pull-pack in the stock and the recent increase in buying, we believe now is a good time to re-enter the stock. The guided revenue for Q4 2017 accounts for the spinoff of its food […]
With Aphria (APH-TSX) closing at $8.53 on Friday, the stock price is now roughly 5% above our fundamental target of $8.13. We began this stock call as a buy at $5.74 after the July 14th close. The Federal sin tax of $1 or 10% came in at the low end of the 10% to 15% expectations. With this positive news out of the way, there remain fewer macro catalysts to move the stock higher. Recall legalization begins on July 1, 2018 and all provinces are expected to be ready by this time. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and […]
This is our second set of surveys of international markets that we believe are representative of Netflix’s international subscriber base. Over the past quarter, international churn has remained constant at 41% while the US churn fell about a quarter from 17% to 13%. A stagnation in churn despite increased investment in local language content will prove harmful to the customer lifetime value (CLTV)/ customer growth costs (CGC) ratio- the SaaS metric on which Netflix trades. Our Surveys- We have used Mexico as a proxy for Spanish speaking markets, Germany for European markets and Japan for Asian markets. Through the surveys we were able […]
Baidu’s (BIDU-NASDAQ) stock price has reached our fundamental price target of $268. As a result we are closing our buy recommendation on the stock. We now believe the Q3 EPS beat is largely priced in – We started coverage of Baidu (BIDU-NASDAQ) on September 3rd with a buy recommendation. Our bull thesis was that we expected Q3 adjusted EPS and Q4 guidance to materially beat consensus, driven by the spinoff of its money-burning Takeout Delivery business. These operating losses were not being fully accounted for in the share price in our opinion. BIDU is up 16% since Perspectec launched coverage with a Buy […]
Recall we track net subscriber adds by tracking the content available while taking into account seasonality and internet penetration rates. These were all statistically significant factors in forecasting net subscriber additions. Prior to the T-Mobile deal, we found that Q3 net subscriber additions were on pace to miss Q3 estimates. We estimated 4M vs. NTFX guide of 4.4M. Post the T-Mobile deal, we expect Q3 net subscriber additions will exceed Q3 estimates. We estimate 5.34 vs. NTFX guide of 4.4M. We forecast that 2.9M T-Mobile Family Plans will be added to NFLX from T-Mobile alone and a few hundred thousand coming […]
Based on T-Mobile’s announcement of Mobile ONE family plans now coming with a free Netflix subscription starting on September 12th, we are closing our Q3 Stock Call. This stock call estimated that Netflix’s net subscriber additions will miss its Q3 guidance of 4.4 million. With this announcement, it now appears Netflix can beat its guidance. We will provide an update on our views in the coming days. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, […]