The last two weeks have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of management selling. Vecima quietly exited from its AirIQ fleet management holdings, and some other surprising selling (and a little buying) from some high flying stocks. AcuityAds ($AT.TO) director Igal Mayer exercised 25,000 options set to expire but chose not to sell the resulting shares despite the possibility of the shares netting him $35,000+. There does not appear to be any minimum share requirements for board members
LSPD.TO
8 posts
Perspective on Technology – August 11, 2020 Lightspeed’s ($LSPD.TO) share price is up 16% (TSX Composite up 3%) since Tuesday, July 28. Fiscal Q1 (June 2020) revenue and headline EBITDA was better than we expected, but there are clear data points that have us continuing to believe $LSPD.TO does not deserve to be trading at a $SHOP-like SaaS multiple. Record Locations Yet Record Low Deferred Revenue “In the three months ended June 30, 2020, we engaged in several customer-focused initiatives, such as subscription discounts and deferred payment arrangements, aimed at supporting our customers during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” We understand the mix towards monthly/annual payment plans vs. multi-year, but that […]
We have published an update on Lightspeed post their fiscal Q3 results and Q4 guidance. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2020 Results and Q4 2020 Guidance Misleading statements surrounding Growth continue Increasingly expensive and unprofitable acquisitions with little synergies and no path to improving margins Insider selling and treasury shares issuance are increasing the market float at the wrong time Reasons for the removal of Cash Flows from Operations guidance for the 2nd time is questionable Updated LTV vs. GC metrics (adjusting for the Gastrofix acquisition) Slowing Organic Growth will cause investors to push towards Profitability, yet consistent 10% EBITDA margins appear […]
After a 3-month planned break, Perspectec has re-started. Our team has been busy finalizing some changes to our portfolio. As of November 29, 2019 prior to the market open we are: – We are upgrading Lightspeed (LSPD.TO) to a HOLD from a SELL. We believe Perspectec’s research was a primary driver in moving the stock price lower. – We are upgrading Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO) to a HOLD from a SELL. We believe Perspectec’s research was a primary driver in moving the stock price lower. – We are moving Shopify (SHOP) from our Focused Portfolio to our General Portfolio. We have […]
Calling institutional investors on a sunny Friday afternoon before the Labo(u)r Day long weekend proved mostly fruitless for myself and Perspectec’s associates in Toronto. However, I’ve received a few inbound questions and points on our 55-slide presentation. As a result, we have updated and slightly re-ordered our Lightspeed investor deck while adding an additional five slides (39, 42, 48, 50, 51). The primary questions via email were around valuation, the math, and logic behind it. As a result, we have added additional math for both Shopify and Lightspeed’s as well as some logic to using LTV/GC as a multiplier to […]
We have updated our Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) presentation, updating our thesis to include further details on our segment forecasts and valuation. Lightspeed (LSPD.TO) August 29, 2019, Institutional Investor SELL Pitch – Perspectec We are making this presentation public for marketing purposes. Institutional Equity Research subscribers had access to an earlier version of this presentation on August 13, 2019. We believe investors holding LSPD.TO should sell their shares. Our investment thesis is that: There are material headwinds Lightspeed’s growth strategy Lightspeed’s Customer Growth has (and will) come almost entirely from acquired platforms Organic customer location acquisition costs are high and […]
We have launched coverage on Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD.TO) with a SELL rating and a price target of C$30. We use lifetime value-added (LTV added) as a base metric gathered through online surveys. In addition, we conducted 22 in-person interviews with retail stores and restaurants across Toronto to get a better sense of customer satisfaction with their product relative to competitors. These methods were used in conjunction with Lightspeed’s gross margin dollar growth relative to its public peer group to come to a fair value for Lightspeed. On a stand-alone basis, Lightspeed’s lifetime value-added divided by its customer growth costs […]