We have completed our initial research on Docebo. This 90-slide presentation includes results from our:
- Face-to-face meetings with Learning & Development (L&D) professionals in Toronto
- Talking with LMS salespeople from Docebo, SAP, Cornerstone OnDemand, Instructure and numerous private LMS firms
- Trialing and demoing Docebo, Adobe, SAP and Bridge Solutions including creating questions, lesson plans and courses and simulating roles as an admin and user
- An online survey involving 16 L&D professionals in North America
- Tracking Docebo’s account executive, business development, inside sales and others in S&M
- Talking with Docebo’s IR
Among the topics we discuss are:
- Docebo’s Tangible Addressable Market (TAM) and the Corporate Learning Management Solutions (LMS) growth rate including calculations on how we came to our estimates
- Docebo’s Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
- Acquisitions to improve its SAM and technology vs. acquiring customers is a positive
- Docebo’s unique market position and market share relative to hundreds of corporate LMS firms
- Why does industry Enterprise LMS software start at $5,000 per year?
- Why is Docebo taking share from Adobe, Cornerstone OnDemand, SAP, Instructure, OpenText and others?
- Price elasticity graphs for 2019 and 2020 and where Docebo sits on the curve.
- Price comparison vs. their 12 closest competitors after accounting for different implementation and integration fees shows they remain an attractive choice
- Results from our face-to-face interviews and what professionals think of Docebo
- Recent reviews from PCMag show Docebo is now a top-rated LMS
- Why free-trials matter for Docebo
- MRL, MQL, SGL and SQL SaaS stats
- Tracking Docebo’s Account Executives, Sales Managers, Strategic Account Managers and others
- Docebo’s Enterprise sales strategy is increasingly being followed by larger SaaS firms targeting large customers
- Our Net Dollar Retention Rate estimates that are expected to be released with Q4/19 results
- Listing customers and the reasons why they chose Docebo as their LMS
- The impact of updates and R&D on Docebo’s product
- Largest factors in revenue growth are new enterprise customers, increasing seat counts with existing logos, price increases, and modulation
- Why Docebo has a stronger outlook than previous TSX learning/talent management tech IPOs Smart Technologies and Halogen Software
- How we forecast costs based on hiring and having revenue estimates using a similar methodology to Docebo
- Why we see revenue materially beating 2020 consensus revenue estimates
- Our summary and detailed Income Statement, Cash Flow, revenue forecast details, employee forecasts, and SaaS metrics
- Comparables Table using Instructure’s takeover price, Halogen’s takeover price and Cornerstone OnDemand share price
- Details on how we calculate SaaS metrics
- Docebo’s SaaS unit metrics are strong relative to Shopify and Lightspeed while trailing Kinaxis
- Docebo’s SaaS unit metrics are materially superior to Cornerstone OnDemand and Instructure
- Risks to our target price
- Further details in the Appendix
We value Docebo (DCBO.TO) at C$26 with a 15-month target date. We believe the current fair price for DCBO.TO is C$19 based on a relative SaaS valuation.
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