We have updated our price targets and some price target ratings for companies with monthly subscriptions in the media distributor industry. We have also removed the Dish Network due to a decision to tighten the band of net debt/EBITDA levels. Below is our current valuations of these companies. Source: Perspectec Spotify Inc. (SPOT-NASDAQ) Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any […]
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With contributions from Nicholas Stiege – One of our top picks, Pandora, saw its share price rise, post an all-stock offer from SiriusXM for $10.14 a share. Including the 10.3% price drop of SiriusXM, the offer represents a takeover price of $9.19, slightly above the $8.98 September 24th closing price, but materially below what we believe Pandora’s fair market price is ($13). It appears the market does not believe another bid is coming. Chairman of both SiriusXM and Pandora Greg Maffei and his two SiriusXM board members at Pandora have voted for a deal that we do not believe is […]
We have updated our easy to follow Netflix powerpoint pitch to investors. We show steps taken on valuation, the success its had over time, and how the results of our surveys are implemented into the target price. Please see our track record on Netflix to date below. In addition we are updating our price targets on Spotify (SPOT-NYSE) to $166 (from $160) and DISH to $25 (from $32) while our recommendations are unchanged.
Spotify continues to lead the streaming music market, splitting share in North America with its largest competitor, Apple Music. The company’s Q2 results and Q3 guidance raised our prospects on the stock slightly. More importantly, however, we have updated our valuation metrics on Spotify. Previously we had valued Spotify on only a trailing 12-month customer lifetime value basis. However, this valuation metric did not do an adequate job accounting for Spotify’s growth metrics. We now value Spotify on a combination of one year’s worth of gross margin dollars and one year’s worth of customer lifetime value added, accounting for guidance one […]
Spotify continues to lead the streaming music market, splitting share in North America with its largest competitor, Apple Music. The company’s Q2 results and Q3 guidance raised our prospects on the stock slightly. More importantly, however, we have updated our valuation metrics on Spotify. Previously we had valued Spotify on only a trailing 12-month customer lifetime value basis. However, this valuation metric did not do an adequate job accounting for Spotify’s growth metrics. We now value Spotify on a combination of one year’s worth of gross margin dollars and one year’s worth of customer lifetime value added, accounting for guidance one […]
Post Spotify’s (SPOT-NYSE) Q1/18 earnings report and Q2/18 guidance, we have updated our Spotify subscription valuation model. Our target price is based on a relative valuation versus Netflix, SiriusXM and Pandora. Our model has a multiple r-squared of 0.997 and p-values for both factors of under 0.09. We value Spotify at $104/share. The actual function calculates the market capitalization,which is based on 3x CLTV TTM + 44x TTM CLTV added. Our updated model now better accounts for a profitable but slower growing userbase at SiriusXM as well as tempering some of the quarterly volatility in TTM CLTV added for Spotify and Pandora. The volatility […]
Following up on our U.S. survey conducted in January, we conducted surveys in Mexico, Germany and Japan to determine the changes in Netflix’s international penetration and churn. Since our last international survey in November of 2017, churn in these countries has fallen from 41% to 36.5%. The net affects on Netflix churn is a decrease from 26.2% to 23.8%. Netflix’s increased investment in local language content appears to be paying off after not showing an improvement four months ago. With the improved Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) / Customer Growth Costs (CGC) ratio, and ultimately leading to a higher valuation. Our […]
We have collected Google Trends search data for Netflix Originals up to the week ended 17th February 2018 and inputted it into our updated regression model to determine the current net subscriber additions and guide towards the quarter’s expected additions. Our model suggests Netflix would have added 4.34 million subscribers in the first half of the quarter. The current track suggests it is on pace to meet and slightly beat the company’s guidance of 6.3 million subscribers for the quarter. We are estimating net subscriber additions to be 6.6 million in Q1 2018. About our Regression Model – Our forecast […]
Following the release of Netflix’s Q4 results, we conducted our 3rd survey of online U.S. residents. The purpose of the survey was to determine Netflix’s churn rate, penetration rate and reasons for subscribers leaving. Results from the 500 respondents revealed significant changes in Netflix’s churn rate for the 2nd straight survey. U.S. subscriber churn continues to plummet at a steady rate – Our survey reveals that subscribers churned at 9.2% over the last year after excluding responses faster than 3 seconds. This compares to a churn rate of 13.3% in September of 2017 and 17% in May of 2017 using the same shorter than three second […]
With Netflix closing at $250.29, above our target share price of $245, we believe investors should now stop accumulating the shares. Recall on January 2nd, we upgraded Netflix to a Buy from a Hold after confirming an earlier signal we saw on December 2nd that Netflix was setting up for a net subscriber addition beat. Following the conclusion of our U.S. Netflix consumer survey and updated tracking of Originals through Google trends, we will re-visit our stock call. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and […]
Three Big Takeaways: 1) Net Subscriber Addition Growth – Netflix reported net subscriber guidance 32% better than their guidance and even surpassing our aggressive estimates by 3%. As we noted in our past two notes, we expected net subscriber additions to blow past the low guidance Netflix set for itself and that the stock would likely surpass all expectations for it. 2) U.S. Price Increases Combined with Strong Net Subscriber Add Guidance – In terms of guidance, U.S. revenue and total paid members imply that Netflix is expecting well over a 6% Q/Q increase in average revenue per subscriber in […]
We have updated our Netflix Q4 net subscriber additions to account for all original programming released up to December 30, 2017. Based on Google Trends historical search data of every Netflix Original relative to its most popular show, 13 Reasons Why, we now estimate that Netflix will add 8.1 million subscribers in Q4 2017 vs. management’s guidance of 6.3 million net subscriber additions. This will be the third straight quarter Netflix will beat its guidance, putting net subscriber additions for the end of 2017 at 23.6 million, up 24% from the end of Q4 2016. The following recaps the foundation of our proprietary multiple linear regression […]
We have updated our net subscriber addition regression model based on Q3 results. Our forecast model now has an adjusted r-squared of 0.99 for tracking net subscriber additions using 18 degrees of freedom. We have applied this model to Q4 programming using data for the week ended November 25, 2017. Based primarily on the performance of it’s original content, we believe Netflix will add anywhere between 7.7 million to 8.2 million subscribers in Q4. This estimate is up from our estimate of 7.4 million net additions at the end of Q3 and would be a strong beat against management’s guidance of 6.4 million net adds. The findings […]
This is our second set of surveys of international markets that we believe are representative of Netflix’s international subscriber base. Over the past quarter, international churn has remained constant at 41% while the US churn fell about a quarter from 17% to 13%. A stagnation in churn despite increased investment in local language content will prove harmful to the customer lifetime value (CLTV)/ customer growth costs (CGC) ratio- the SaaS metric on which Netflix trades. Our Surveys- We have used Mexico as a proxy for Spanish speaking markets, Germany for European markets and Japan for Asian markets. Through the surveys we were able […]