Cornerstone OnDemand’s SaaS Multiple Post-Saba Synergies Pushes our Docebo Target Price Higher Docebo ($DCBO.TO) reported Q2/20 results that were better than we expected. After Q1/20 results saw the company’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) / S&M drop from 1.2x to 0.83x, we were concerned that selling their relatively expensive solution was becoming more difficult. This quarter not only did the ratio remain steady at 0.83x, but Cornerstone OnDemand’s ($CSOD) updated run-rate synergies expected from their acquisition of Saba Software has continued to improve.
SaaS Metrics
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We have completed our initial research on Docebo. This 90-slide presentation includes results from our: Face-to-face meetings with Learning & Development (L&D) professionals in Toronto Talking with LMS salespeople from Docebo, SAP, Cornerstone OnDemand, Instructure and numerous private LMS firms Trialing and demoing Docebo, Adobe, SAP and Bridge Solutions including creating questions, lesson plans and courses and simulating roles as an admin and user An online survey involving 16 L&D professionals in North America Tracking Docebo’s account executive, business development, inside sales and others in S&M Talking with Docebo’s IR Among the topics we discuss are: Docebo’s Tangible Addressable Market […]
This 33-slide update on Docebo (DCBO.TO) comes off the heels of discussions with nearly a dozen sales teams from the largest Learning Management Software (LMS) companies in the World. This includes communication with Adobe (ADBE), SAP, Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD), Instructure (INST), Docebo and a number of large, private competitors. The work conducted by our team has increased our conviction that Docebo’s shares should be purchased now.
We have launched coverage on Docebo (DCBO-Toronto) with this 27-slide Docebo Powerpoint publication. This report involved detailed face-to-face and online discussions with LMS professionals. We expect to release a longer, more detailed version of this report in the coming weeks prior to making our report public. Docebo will now join our Focused Portfolio as a BUY. Perspectec has a history of moving billion+ dollar market capitalized companies share price once our research becomes public. Our most recent examples in 2019 include the publications of Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO) and Lightspeed (LSPD.TO).
Calling institutional investors on a sunny Friday afternoon before the Labo(u)r Day long weekend proved mostly fruitless for myself and Perspectec’s associates in Toronto. However, I’ve received a few inbound questions and points on our 55-slide presentation. As a result, we have updated and slightly re-ordered our Lightspeed investor deck while adding an additional five slides (39, 42, 48, 50, 51). The primary questions via email were around valuation, the math, and logic behind it. As a result, we have added additional math for both Shopify and Lightspeed’s as well as some logic to using LTV/GC as a multiplier to […]
We have created and updated our Mid-Sized, Slow Growth (SMB Focused) SaaS Comps table while launching coverage of ZEN in our Perspectec General Portfolio. Our target prices are based on a multiple regression model with a multiple r-squared of over 0.65 and r-squared of 0.90. We expect to improve this model moving forward. We do not use targets for Hubspot, RingCentral or Wix at the moment as we believe there are more accurate methods that can be a driver to their stock prices. We believe these metrics are reasonable in the absence of earnings due to the higher likelihood of these […]
A volatile few months – The first half of Q3 2017 has been volatile for Netflix’s (NFLX:NASDAQ) stock price. Starting in July with our initiation at $146, NFLX jumped to $189 following a stronger than expected Q2 net subscriber additions before settling around $168 today. Also driven by news of Disney, Facebook and Apple entering the over-the-top (OTT) content market, Q3’s annualized volatility of 46% compares to a 29.5% annual volatility that Netflix has seen year-to-date. Netflix might fall short of the guided 4.4 million net adds – After updating our regression model for Q2 data, we estimate that a […]