We have completed a survey of 600 respondents. The purpose of the survey was to provide churn, penetration and awareness rates for Square (SQ-NYSE). According to our estimates, Square has strong subscriber metrics for its core retail product solutions. The churn rate we obtained helps us compare the company on a Subscriber as a Service (SaaS) basis versus its public peer group. While Square was rightfully boastful about a 3- to 4-quarter payback period on sales and marketing investments in its Q2 shareholder letter and conference call, the lack of providing a net dollar retention rate or churn rate remains […]
Churn Rate
7 posts
We have completed a survey of 400 respondents. The purpose of the survey was to provide churn, penetration and awareness rates for Wix (WIX-NASDAQ). Wix releases metrics such as end-of-period premium subscribers and average annual revenue that helps us value the company on a Subscriber as a Service (SaaS) basis. The customer churn rate that we calculate from the survey results is a key statistic necessary to properly value Wix on a relative SaaS valuation, but that is not released by Wix. The details of the survey are below. The description states all ages, but involves only users over 18 […]
We have updated our Shopify (SHOP-NYSE) marketing package which includes our survey results as well as our Q2 and annual forecasts. Our updated 23 slide Shopify pitch is attached.
Following up on our U.S. survey conducted in January, we conducted surveys in Mexico, Germany and Japan to determine the changes in Netflix’s international penetration and churn. Since our last international survey in November of 2017, churn in these countries has fallen from 41% to 36.5%. The net affects on Netflix churn is a decrease from 26.2% to 23.8%. Netflix’s increased investment in local language content appears to be paying off after not showing an improvement four months ago. With the improved Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) / Customer Growth Costs (CGC) ratio, and ultimately leading to a higher valuation. Our […]
Following the release of Netflix’s Q4 results, we conducted our 3rd survey of online U.S. residents. The purpose of the survey was to determine Netflix’s churn rate, penetration rate and reasons for subscribers leaving. Results from the 500 respondents revealed significant changes in Netflix’s churn rate for the 2nd straight survey. U.S. subscriber churn continues to plummet at a steady rate – Our survey reveals that subscribers churned at 9.2% over the last year after excluding responses faster than 3 seconds. This compares to a churn rate of 13.3% in September of 2017 and 17% in May of 2017 using the same shorter than three second […]
This is our second set of surveys of international markets that we believe are representative of Netflix’s international subscriber base. Over the past quarter, international churn has remained constant at 41% while the US churn fell about a quarter from 17% to 13%. A stagnation in churn despite increased investment in local language content will prove harmful to the customer lifetime value (CLTV)/ customer growth costs (CGC) ratio- the SaaS metric on which Netflix trades. Our Surveys- We have used Mexico as a proxy for Spanish speaking markets, Germany for European markets and Japan for Asian markets. Through the surveys we were able […]
From September 22nd to September 24th we conducted another online U.S. survey with 400 respondents about their Netflix’s (NFLX: NASDAQ) usage. The most notable difference from our previous survey in June was that domestic annual customer churn has moved substantially lower, dropping from 17.3% to 13.3%. This move has caused our estimate of the value of a U.S. subscriber (U.S. CLTV) to increase from our previous from $330 to $429. In terms of the company wide impact, our company-wide Q3 annual churn rate moves from 28.6% to 26.6%. Netflix’s overall CLTV moves from our previous estimate of $139 to $150. EXHIBIT […]