We have introduced our Perspectec Insider Trading Portfolio. The equal weighted portfolio currently involves 38 primarily Canadian investable technology and cannabis companies. Ratings are updated at least every month. Performance since the August 18, 2020 Launch to September 21, 2020 Source: Perspectec Here are the list of names in the portfolio.
APHA.TO
13 posts
We have updated our Aphria research pitch, including the impact of COVID-19 on our forecast. We have also updated our recommendation, price target, and cannabis price/demand curves. We have also made our Aphria financial model available.
Aphria released further details on the Latin America operations. The details on the release did not portray businesses worth anything close to the amount paid and played into Quintessential Capital Management arguments. No financials or even pictures were provided by Aphria. Details on the nearly 100 employees remain cloudy and at this point it would appear that Vic Neufeld will need to step down.
We have completed a holistic overview of Canada’s recreational cannabis market. Based primarily on data from Colorado as well as taking into account capacity increases from Canada’s lowest-cost producer, we have a materially different assumption on future market prices and demand. Attached is our overview of the industry. All graphs used are sourced from either the State of Colorado, BDS, Provincial government press releases or BDS Analytics.
On Wednesday February 21, Aphria posted on its social media accounts that their phase 3 expansion was complete. The next step before the greenhouse can have marijuana plants move in is receiving Health Canada approval. A timely phase 3 expansion is key to meeting EBITDA expectations over the next year – Phase 3 is expected to more than triple Aphria’s production capacity (excluding their Broken Coast acquisition) from 9,000 KG/year to 30,000 KG/year. This is well above retail and wholesale medical demand for Aphria’s marijuana products, which are selling at a 5,000 KG/year run rate. In other words this expansion is […]
Updated on February 7th. Written by Robin Manson-Hing with Contributions from Saif Shah. We have received exclusive photos on Aphria’s phase 3 and 4, 700,000 square foot expansion from Saif Shah. These pictures along with those coming out on Aphria’s phase 3 expansion have caused us to raise questions on a topic that does not appear to be widely discussed. Recall based on Aphria’s September press release it was said that phase 3 would be completed by September 2017 (12 months following a September 2016 press release) and that Health Canada approval would take place by January 2018 (four months following the expansion’s completion). As […]
Aphria is set to release their fiscal Q2/18 results (quarter ending November 30) around the middle of January. As is normally the case, there is not expected to be a press release of results or an earnings conference call. Stock Prices Has Been Going Up After Quarterly Reports – Aphria has seen its share price increase 14% and 2% the day after reporting its last two quarterly results. Fiscal Q4 (quarter ended May 2017) saw cash costs reach a Canadian industry low of $0.79 per gram by competitors’ definition ($1.11 by Aphria’s definition) and a 181% Q/Q increase in EBITDA […]
With Aphria (APH-TSX) closing at $8.53 on Friday, the stock price is now roughly 5% above our fundamental target of $8.13. We began this stock call as a buy at $5.74 after the July 14th close. The Federal sin tax of $1 or 10% came in at the low end of the 10% to 15% expectations. With this positive news out of the way, there remain fewer macro catalysts to move the stock higher. Recall legalization begins on July 1, 2018 and all provinces are expected to be ready by this time. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and […]
With contributions from Saif Shah Medical marijuana licensed producer Aphria (APH.TO) reported in-line revenue and EBITDA. Below are APH’s fiscal Q1/18 results versus our expectations. Source: Company reports and Perspectec An unrealized gain with upside – Results were very much in-line with our expectations up until “unrealized gain on long-term investments”. Aphria has used the $200 million+ investor funds raised not only for it’s Leamington greenhouse expansion but also for a number of <20% ownership positions in public (Level 1) and private (Level 3) marijuana companies. APH’s long-term investments would have decreased in value the last three months if it wasn’t for their […]
Aphria is expected to report its fiscal Q1/18 (three months ended August 31st 2017) results tomorrow. Below are our expectations for results: Q1/18 Forecast Kilograms sold should continue to track (and maybe beat) revenue growth After a low cash cost per gram of $1.11 last quarter, we believe Aphria will be able to maintain and see no major movement in cash costs We expect a slow down in EBITDA from last quarter but still enough to make it Aphria’s eighth consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA We believe investors should continue buying Aphria’s shares up until about $8. We are maintaining our […]
Aphria is in the midst of building out its largest and likely last greenhouse expansion (Part IV). Their 700,000 square-foot expansion will increase cannabis production capacity from 30,000 KG a year to 100,000 KGs when it is finished by mid-2018. Talking with insiders at the company, material technological advancements are poised to have a meaningful impact to the future operational costs and profits of Aphria. Among the changes the additions to includes: 1) The co-generation of heat and power (CHP) in the new building, 2) Power supply from the proposed Windsor-Essex upgraded grid, and potential sell back 3) Switching to LED lightning (provided […]
The streets are talking. To us. Wall Street and Bay Street that is. We normally speak with a number of instiutional investors every week. Below are filtered and redacted summary notes from this past week about what we have talked about to a limited number of institutional investors. This is not an entire list and includes only our coverage universe. I filter for things that have the potential to have been said to push a position in a stock. I redact information that can be deemed as sensitive for the investor in any way or that can lead to a more unattractive […]
In this report, we compare key metrics between Aphria and Canopy Growth, two of the largest licensed Canadian marijuana producers. Our fiscal 2019 EBITDA estimate for both companies are dozens of millions of dollars below the lowest sell-side estimate. In our discussions with those in the industry and analysis of the market, we believe our estimates will end up being closer to actual reported figures. We believe Aphria’s share price will increase (or decrease less) versus Canopy’s beginning from July 14th 2017 to the average last ten trading days closing price in October of 2019. The stock call is good […]