In this report, we compare key metrics between Aphria and Canopy Growth, two of the largest licensed Canadian marijuana producers. Our fiscal 2019 EBITDA estimate for both companies are dozens of millions of dollars below the lowest sell-side estimate. In our discussions with those in the industry and analysis of the market, we believe our estimates will end up being closer to actual reported figures. We believe Aphria’s share price will increase (or decrease less) versus Canopy’s beginning from July 14th 2017 to the average last ten trading days closing price in October of 2019. The stock call is good […]
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This is the first in an ongoing series of research examining Aphria’s (TSX: APH) business and share price. The purpose of undergoing this research is to help us determine the future direction of APH relative to Canopy Growth (TSX: WEED). The highest risk/reward forecast we can make that we believe will impact the future stock price is anticipating Aphria’s next few quarter’s kilograms sold, profit per gram and EBITDA. Unexpected changes in kilograms sold can lead to changes in the trajectory of revenue and EBITDA and a re-valuation of the stock price by buy-side and sell-side. We believe Aphria’s share […]