Updated on February 7th. Written by Robin Manson-Hing with Contributions from Saif Shah. We have received exclusive photos on Aphria’s phase 3 and 4, 700,000 square foot expansion from Saif Shah. These pictures along with those coming out on Aphria’s phase 3 expansion have caused us to raise questions on a topic that does not appear to be widely discussed. Recall based on Aphria’s September press release it was said that phase 3 would be completed by September 2017 (12 months following a September 2016 press release) and that Health Canada approval would take place by January 2018 (four months following the expansion’s completion). As […]
Saif Shah
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Aphria is set to release their fiscal Q2/18 results (quarter ending November 30) around the middle of January. As is normally the case, there is not expected to be a press release of results or an earnings conference call. Stock Prices Has Been Going Up After Quarterly Reports – Aphria has seen its share price increase 14% and 2% the day after reporting its last two quarterly results. Fiscal Q4 (quarter ended May 2017) saw cash costs reach a Canadian industry low of $0.79 per gram by competitors’ definition ($1.11 by Aphria’s definition) and a 181% Q/Q increase in EBITDA […]
Aphria is expected to report its fiscal Q1/18 (three months ended August 31st 2017) results tomorrow. Below are our expectations for results: Q1/18 Forecast Kilograms sold should continue to track (and maybe beat) revenue growth After a low cash cost per gram of $1.11 last quarter, we believe Aphria will be able to maintain and see no major movement in cash costs We expect a slow down in EBITDA from last quarter but still enough to make it Aphria’s eighth consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA We believe investors should continue buying Aphria’s shares up until about $8. We are maintaining our […]
Aphria is in the midst of building out its largest and likely last greenhouse expansion (Part IV). Their 700,000 square-foot expansion will increase cannabis production capacity from 30,000 KG a year to 100,000 KGs when it is finished by mid-2018. Talking with insiders at the company, material technological advancements are poised to have a meaningful impact to the future operational costs and profits of Aphria. Among the changes the additions to includes: 1) The co-generation of heat and power (CHP) in the new building, 2) Power supply from the proposed Windsor-Essex upgraded grid, and potential sell back 3) Switching to LED lightning (provided […]
This version of our comparable table compares only public cannabis producers in Canada who have produced marijuana and have a net cash balance in the millions. We compare a number of non-financial metrics such as production, forecasted future production, kilograms sold, capacity and percentage of oil sales. We also look at traditional financial figures such as Bloomberg consensus EV/EBITDA estimates for fiscal 2017, 2018, 2019 and sometimes 2020 as well as our estimates for Aphria, Canopy Growth and MedReleaf. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for […]
In this report, we compare key metrics between Aphria and Canopy Growth, two of the largest licensed Canadian marijuana producers. Our fiscal 2019 EBITDA estimate for both companies are dozens of millions of dollars below the lowest sell-side estimate. In our discussions with those in the industry and analysis of the market, we believe our estimates will end up being closer to actual reported figures. We believe Aphria’s share price will increase (or decrease less) versus Canopy’s beginning from July 14th 2017 to the average last ten trading days closing price in October of 2019. The stock call is good […]
This is the first in an ongoing series of research examining Aphria’s (TSX: APH) business and share price. The purpose of undergoing this research is to help us determine the future direction of APH relative to Canopy Growth (TSX: WEED). The highest risk/reward forecast we can make that we believe will impact the future stock price is anticipating Aphria’s next few quarter’s kilograms sold, profit per gram and EBITDA. Unexpected changes in kilograms sold can lead to changes in the trajectory of revenue and EBITDA and a re-valuation of the stock price by buy-side and sell-side. We believe Aphria’s share […]